D-Lo Knows How to Finish

The team that I handed off to my girlfriend at the beginning of the season was looking pretty heading into MNF in the first week of the playoffs. She was up by 4 with DeAngelo Williams to play. Her opponent had Antonio Bryant. D-Lo has been on fire lately and Bryant just didn't look that scary. I didn't turn the game on the 3rd quarter. When I did, Emily's team was in trouble. Bryant was having a career night, D-Lo had only 43 yards on the ground and Jonathan Stewart had gotten the only rushing score. During the remainder of the 3rd quarter, Bryant continued racking up receiving yards, but D-Lo also got rolling. In fact, Williams carried Carolina all the way to the goal line so that Stewart could punch it in with 12:21 to go.

At this point, Emily is down 9 and I'm worried. Particularly with Stewart getting the goal line carries. But with 8:30 to go, Williams wraps up a nice drive with a 16 yard TD scamper. Emily is up by 1 and Carolina leads 23-31.

On the following drive, Bryant grabs a 15 yard pass and pulls the fantasy score even at 91 apiece. With 2:29 remaining, Garcia throws a strike that Bryant snags in the end zone with one of the most ridiculous one-handed catches of the year. Fantasy score 91 - 99. Not looking good.

On what will likely be Carolina's last drive, I'm looking at the field and wondering if D-Lo rips off a TD run, are there enough yards left to regain the lead. Turns out that yes, there are. Williams broke right and evaded a couple tackles for a 36 yard TD. Fantasy score 101-99. Tampa was shut down on the their final drive, and that was the ball game.

What really struck me is in the middle of the Williams' final run, I realized that he should kneel at the 1. Given the score, the right move was to run out the clock in the red zone. The smart football play was the same one that caused Westbrook owners to rise up in rage and disgust when he pulled that stunt last year. But DeAngelo Williams is NOT Brian Westbrook. And as a result, there are a lot of grateful fantasy owners out there.

Bye Week Replacements - Week 8

With Chicago, Denver, Minnesota and Green Bay out of action this week, there are a lot of roster holes to be filled. It's Friday and if you're struggling, here are a few largely unowned (according to Yahoo! statistics) players at each offensive position:

QB

• J.T. O'Sullivan - San Francisco - 49% owned: I've picked on the Seattle D the past few weeks. But then again, so have opposing quarterbacks. Look for JTO to drop a couple bombs against a sorry looking Seahawks secondary.
  
• Kerry Collins - Tennessee - 15% owned: Despite being 6-0, owners aren't showing Collins much love. And while you don't want a guy of this vintage as your starting QB every week, this week's matchup against the highly inconsistent Colts makes him a good desperation play if more appealing options like JTO and Matt Cassel have been claimed.

RB

• BenJarvus Green-Ellis - New England - 11% owned: Do I like Green-Ellis's running style? No. Did he look effective in the second half against Denver last weekend? Not really. Why is he here? Because you aren't going to find a less frequently owned starter anywhere else this week. The man of too many names will likely cede third down and receiving snaps to Kevin Faulk, but will still get enough of a workload to fill in for a bye week.
  
• Mewelde Moore - Pittsburgh - 49% owned: With the return of Willie Parker imminent, many of the folks who benefited from Moore's fantasy fiesta last week returned him to the scrap heap. That may have been premature. Parker was returned to Pittsburgh's injury report on Thursday. And even if this is a precautionary measure, Moore played so well last weekend, he will likely steal carries from a healthy Parker.

WR

• Kevin Curtis - Philadelphia - 57% owned: Due to Reggie Brown's ongoing injury issues, this week the Eagles name Curtis and DeSean Jackson as their starting wideouts. The market has been slow to react and the chances Curtis is available in your league is slightly less than 50/50. McNabb has been throwing well this season and if Curtis stays healthy, he may be a permanent add.
  
• Donnie Avery - St. Louis - 17% owned: Apparently a lot of owners missed Avery's coming out party against the Cowboys last week. Apart from his terrible end zone dance moves, everything else Avery did suggests he will be a major part of the resurgent Rams' offense. Avery is another guy that may be a permanent add if his production remains solid.
• HEADS UP PLAY. Steve Breaston - Arizona - 51% owned: A lot of owners have dropped Breaston on word of Anquan Boldin's return. But given Boldin's very recent receipt of medical clearance, and the extent of the injury (required 8 facial plates and having his jaw wired), he will likely be a game-time decision this week. If Q is out, look for Breaston to have another solid outing.
  

TE

• John Carlson - Seattle - 46% owned: After being completely left out of the game plan in week 5, the Seahawks have been conscientious about getting Carlson the ball. And with Matt Hasselbeck out, Carlson is proving to be a favorite checkdown and short yardage option for struggling backups.
• Zach Miller - Oakland - 38% owned: At Baltimore this week, Jamarcus Russell likely won't have many big play opportunities. Look for him to focus the passing game on the slot and to key on Miller for short gains.

K

• Ok, my bad on the Carney call last week. Tynes wasn't ready to come back and shoulder the load of the 6-10 plays per game his talents are actually required.
  
• You got an apology for Carney, but you're still not getting a kicker recommendation. Anyone with an "FA" indicator next to their name will suffice.

D/ST

• New York Jets - 67% owned: I realize that 2/3 of leagues have already wised up to the fact that anybody playing Kansas City is the matchup of the week. However, I'm still throwing it out there in the event you'r in the 1/3 of leagues where this creampuff is still available.
• Buffalo - 33% owned: If last weekend's game at Baltimore is any indicator, opposing D's have figured out Miami's Wildcat offense. So long as Buffalo operates on the continuation of that theme, they could completely shut down the Dolphins.
  

Cleveland: We Do Our Best to Be The Worst

ESPN.com reported this evening that the Cleveland Browns have decided to suspend TE Kellen Winslow for one game following his harsh remarks about the way the team, and GM Phil Savage in particular, handled his recent hospitalization for a staph infection.

I'm not going to speculate about how this may be the most fascist management call of the 2008 season. But I am going to suggest that this may be the most boneheaded management call of the 2008 season. Despite the offensive explosion the Browns demonstrated against the Giants, they have since returned to their previously sub-par play. And now at 2-4, Cleveland needs to rediscover that explosive element immediately, or their promising season may be lost.

So if the goal is getting back to .500, why would you bench a guy like Winslow for anything short of a felony? The Browns have made it clear that Phil Savage's vanity is more important to them than fielding the best possible team. Fans and fantasy owners alike should take note.

Week 7 - Early Game Wrapup

Notes and observations from today's early games:

• The Cowboys are in TROUBLE - You can try and pin today's 34-7 beatdown at the hands of the Rams on Brad Johnson, but this losing effort belongs to the entire team. Getting Romo back may help things, but the magic has officially worn off in Big D.
• Steven Jackson put an exclamation point on his comeback when he ran for 160 yards and three scores today. Jackson has been improving rapidly over the past three outings and unless you need to replace your entire roster to try and make the playoffs, you don't sell him at any price.
• Buffalo is the real deal? With Trent Edwards back under center, everybody did their job against the increasingly slow looking Chargers today. Edwards was good for 261 yds passing and a TD strike to Lee Evans. Marshawn Lynch had 92 YFS and a score. If you're a worried owner with a lot of Cowboys, the Bills skill players may be good trade targets.
• Paging Dr. Drew. Has anyone seen Drew Brees? The #1 statistical QB in the NFL didn't show up for today's game against the hot and cold Panthers. The imposter in the Brees jersey put up 231 yards, a pick and no TD's. This is the kind of line that isn't too bad if the running game is clicking. It was not. Aside from Brees owners, the real victims today were all those folks who started Marques Colston, expecting an immediate fantasy payoff after holding him on the bench for the past six weeks. They were sorely disappointed when Colston did not have a single reception.
• Carolina was rolling this week, so expect them to lay down and get destroyed by Arizona next weekend. Williams and Stewart ended with nearly identical lines and both had a score. So it looks as though both players will be serviceable RB2 or flex options down the stretch. Steve Smith's performance (122 yds and a TD) was yet another reason he's the only Carolina receiver I want to own.
  
• Tennesee is living large. And I'm not just talking about Lendale White. The quietly unbeaten Titans racked up 332 rushing yards today against the lowly Chiefs. Both White and Chris Johnson are worthy acquisitions if you're trying to improve your RB depth. Side note from this game: Brodie Croyle went down with a knee injury that is likly season ending. Raise your hand if this seriously affects your fantasy situation. Nobody?
• Minnesota at Chicago. Who saw that one turning into a fantasy feast? AP had his first truly Petersonian game of the season with 121 yards rushing, 2 scores and no fumbles. Kyle Orton continues to look more and more like a real starting quarterback. If you're in QB trouble and Orton is available, pick him up. On the other side of the ball, Gus Frerotte would have had a veyr nice day (295 yds passing and 2 TD's) if weren't for the 4, count'em, 4 interceptions. Frerotte is definitely an upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson for the Vikings, but it's unlikely he's an upgrade over whoever you're starting now for fantasy purposes.
  
• I, like a lot of people, thought the Giants would come back from last week's embarassing loss to the Browns by laying the smack down on the 49'ers. So it was surprising when the 49'ers hung tough and kept the game competitive. I'm not suggesting that the Giants are in trouble the same way Dallas is in trouble, but their initial run of dominance may be over.
• If you picked up Mewelde Moore as a bye week plugin, yeah, I called that one. 134 YFS and 3 scores made Moore one of the most valuable RB's of the weekend (and the afternoon games are just getting underway). And Roethlisberger made his whole receiving corps look good while thrashing the Bengals. But Santonio Holmes' continuing lack of TD production is troubling.
  

Fantasy QB Controversy

Aaron Rodgers is a one of the top two scoring fantasy QB's in most leagues. He has played through the pain of a sprained shoulder and put up some decent stats. Rodgers has been my starter since week 3. Why not weeks 1 and 2? Because my designated starter coming into the season was Matt Schaub. The same Matt Schaub who tossed up three interceptions, zero TD's and a whopping 188 yards in week two. After that game, the rapidly improving Rodgers looked like the safe play.

But, now, 4 weeks later, a dilemma arises. Through some creative waiver management, I've been able to reacquire Schaub in my money league. And after two games with decent stats, the return to fantasy dominance of Andre Johnson and the emergence of Steve Slaton as a talented starter, Schaub now has one of the juiciest matchups of the season against the toothless Lions D.

So here's the question: Do I play Rodgers at Indy, knowing he may get shut down by a resurgent Indy D? Or do I go with Schaub despite the many times (this season and last) he's let me down in the past? I've seen how effective Detroit can be at making mediocre offenses look explosive, so right now I'm leaning towards Schaub. But I won't make a final decision until game time Sunday. Comments are welcome.

Bye Week Replacements - Week 7

If you're sticking around long enough to read any of the following, go ahead and post a comment. Tell me I'm right, tell me I'm an idiot, doesn't matter. Just let me know you're reading. I got a lot of local love and hate for my week 6 replacement recommendations, so here we go again...

(percentage owned based on Yahoo! statistics)

QB

• Brad Johnson - Dallas - 33% owned: Recent news out of Dallas suggests that following a pep talk from Brett Favre, Tony Romo has told head coach Wade Phillips he is prepared to play this weekend. Even with a broken pinkie finger. However, the same reason Wade Phillips probably won't play Romo is the same reason this week is Brad Johnson's best bet for a productive outing: The Cowboys are playing St. Louis. This user friendly defense pulled off an upset over Washington last week, but don't expect the trend to continue. Provided Romo doesn't force his way onto the field, Johnson's access to the Cowboy's formidable receiving corps makes him a great bye week plug-in.
• Jeff Garcia - Tampa Bay - 24% owned: In week 7, Garcia and the Bucs face a Seattle team devastated by injury and reeling from consecutive beat-downs by the Giants and Packers. Tampa's offense has been surprisingly productive this season and Seattle is starting to look like a great defensive matchup for any quarterback with a pulse (this of course excludes Brodie Croyle).
  

RB

• Dominic Rhodes - Indianapolis - 30% owned: As of writing this entry, most leagues have not yet been clued in to the fact that Joseph Addai (hamstring) will definitely be out this week, and possibly through week 11. Rhodes had a productive outing in relief of Addai last week. And with the passing game starting to click in Indy, increased pressure in opposing secondaries should open holes for the ground game. If you're in need of RB help this week, check RIGHT NOW to see if Addai is still available. I'll wait.
• Mewelde Moore - Pittsburgh - 16% owned: Late breaking news out of Pittsburgh suggests Willie Parker may have experienced a serious setback to his knee injury after stepping in a hole during Monday's practice. If this situation prevents Parker from taking the field, a rested Moore will get the chance to carve up the winless Bengals this weekend.

WR

• Devin Hester - Chicago - 46% owned: Hester will likely start this week in place of the injured Brandon Lloyd. And against a tough Minnesota run D, Kyle Orton will look to air it out frequently. Hester's receiving numbers have improved throughout the season, and the twitchy-fast return specialist is beginning to look like a legitimate WR. Wideout talent is at a premium this season, so Hester may be the most attractive available option for bye week purposes.
• Lance Moore - New Orleans - 52% owned: With the highly anticipated return of Marques Colston this week, many owners are abandoning their Saints wideouts. But in his first week back from thumb surgery, Colston is going to need help (if he's at all effective). Moore had a great outing last week against the Raiders, leading the team with 97 yards receiving. He will likely start opposite Colston and has the chance to outshine his counterpart this week.

TE

• Jeremy Shockey - New Orleans - 65% owned: Still available in over a third of leagues, Shockey may return to action against Carolina this weekend. If he does plan to start, grab him and play him in place of your bye week absence.
• I'm only recommending one TE this week, because if you're starting any of the TE's on a bye this week (except for maybe L.J. Smith) you're probably better off just leaving a hole in your lineup.

K

• What did we learn last week? Any old kicker will do. Except John Carney. The Giants will release him this week to start a healthy Lawrence Tynes. Look for Carney in a Saints uni shortly.

D/ST

• Miami - 19% owned: Miami's much improved defense has a nice matchup this weekend against a Baltimore O lacking in explosive firepower.
• Houston - 18% owned: With a resurgent offense, Houston's D may get a chance to rest for a few minutes this week. That should enhance their performance against the Detroit Kittens.
  

Bye Week Replacements - Week 6

Week six seems to be especially punishing in terms of bye week roster holes. If you're still scrambling for a bye week fill in, here are several largely unowned (based on Yahoo! statistics) options at each position to get you through the weekend:


QB

• Kyle Orton - Chicago: Not only is Orton beginning to look like a legit starter, but his consistency has been pretty amazing. With Forte's emergence creating a balanced offense, Orton has racked up 1100 passing yards and 7 TD's on the season. And he has the potential for another stat-boosting outing in Atlanta. Even on Saturday, he's only 54% owned.
• Matt Schaub - Houston: Schaub's breakout game came in week 4, when he threw for 307 yards, 3 TD's and no picks. But due to the illness that prevented him from playing in week five, he was dropped from a lot of rosters. Since Sage Rosenfels managed to win the starting job in quarters 1-3 of last week's game and then lost it in the 4th, owners have been slow to reacquire Schaub. This weekend he's facing a Miami D that has been effective against the run, but is also giving up long pass plays. Schaub is 55% owned.

RB

• Correll Buckhalter - Philadelphia: Andy Reid's decision to hold Brian Westbrook out Sunday's game against the 49'ers presents a great opportunity for owners strapped at RB in week 6. Buckhalter has been very effective in relief of Westbrook and is a better option than just about any timeshare RB available this week.
• Tim Hightower - Arizona: When the best you can hope to get out of a last minute replacement are some goal line carries and maybe a TD, Hightower is your man. The Arizona red zone specialist has had five touchdowns in his first five games and is 39% owned.
• Chis Perry - Cincinnati: CAUTION, Perry is a risky play this week. However, he is a generally unpopular option after fumbling away a win for the Bengals last weekend, and may be available in leagues where owners were astute enough to grab Buckhalter and Hightower. Because Fitzgerald is in for Palmer this week, expect the passing game to struggle. If the Bengals are going to make anything happen on offense, they're going to lean heavily on Perry.

WR

• Kevin Curtis - Philadelphia: With Reggie Brown out for the week, Curtis's return from a hernia offers some promise. We have yet to see how effective Curtis will be coming off a serious injury, but there aren't a lot of better starting options available.
• Antwaan Randle El - Washington: One thing the Rams are very good at is making opposing receivers look like Randy Moss (circa November 2007). Randle El is 42% owned and is a strong candidate for a monster game against one of the worst secondaries in the league.

TE

• Donald Lee - Green Bay: Did anybody watch the whole Giants at Seattle game last week? Eli Manning was making it rain (completions, not Pacman style). Expect Aaron Rodgers to do the same thing this week. Donald Lee should be one of the beneficiaries.
• L.J. Smith - Philadelphia: OK, so I'm high on Philly position players as fill-ins this week. Smith is playing despite a sore back. But with the iffy receiving corps available to Donovan McNabb this week, L.J. might still be a weapon of choice. He's 37% owned.

K

• Just pick one, ok? They're all pretty much the same.

D/ST

• Washington: Play the matchups. And this week, Washington has a great matchup against a sorry St. Louis offense. At only 37% owned, Washington is a steal if you want to hold Tennesee or Pittsburgh through the bye week.
• New York Jets: With the recent news that Carson Palmer will sit out the week six contest against the Jets, this matchup suddenly becomes very appealing for defensive purposes. At only 34% owned, the Jets are the most widely available D with a favorable matchup.
  

Rookie Roll Call

It's common knowledge in the NFL that the only rookie players to consistently make an impact are running backs. While rookie QB's Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco have shown tremendous promise, this year seems to be no exception. The '08 crop of rookie running backs is making a lot of noise. Below are some thoughts about the performance of the ten highest scoring (Yahoo! standard settings) rookie RB's so far this year:

• #1 - Matt Forte - Chicago: Hanging out just outside the top five overall RB's, Forte broke out in week 1 against Indy and has been developing into a solid RB1 ever since. Forte's recent sub-par outing at Detroit says less about his talent and more about the fact that Chicago was able to exploit the Lions' secondary to maximum effect. When not matched up against cupcake passing D's, expect to see Forte continue to get around 23 carries per game.
  
• #2 - Chris Johnson - Tennessee: With 381 rushing yards, the only thing Johnson is missing at this point is the goal line. Goal line carries for the Titans still reside with The Stay Puft Marshmallow Man Lendale White. However, White's recent injury troubles suggest Johnson may start stealing an even greater percentage of the workload. Although Johnson had a rough game last week against the Ravens stingy run D, look for him to bounce back with a monster outing in Kansas City after Chicago's week 6 bye.
• #3 - Steve Slaton - Houston: On an 0-4 Texans squad, Slaton is shaping up to be the lone bright spot this year. He quickly replaced Ahman Green in the starting role and has put up 100+ YFS in the past three contests. Even with Green back from injury on Sunday, Slaton still looked dominant, netting 93 yards on the ground and two scores. The Houston passing game has shown signs of the life the past two weeks. Having a legitimate pass threat, could open up additional holes for Slaton as the season rolls on.
• #4 - Felix Jones - Dallas: In week 4, Jones failed to touch the ball once, and the Cowboys lost at home to the Redskins. In week 5, Jones was handed the ball 9 times and reeled off 96 yards and a score. The Cowboys already have a RB beast in Marion Barber. But Jones is a speedy outside runner with enormous potential. Expect to see him get 5-10 carries per game going forward, plus return duties. Jones's workload may not cement him as an RB1 or even an RB2 this season. But if you're looking for a great flex play or bye week fill-in, Jones fits.
• #5 - Jonathon Stewart - Carolina: Stewart is quickly emerging as the MJD to DeAngelo Williams' Fred Taylor. Williams' starter status and week 5 explosion notwithstanding, Stewart has managed to look like the more attractive of the two backs with 269 yds on the ground and 4 scores to his credit. The 329 return yards also haven't hurt. Stewart's bowling ball build and running style and his fairly even share in the Carolina committee make him a solid RB2. He has RB1 potential, but not until he clearly surpasses Williams as the starter (which may or may not happen this season).
• #6 - Tim Hightower - Arizona: The heir apparent to Edgerrin James, Hightower has already been a fairly productive fantasy RB even in the backup role. Although he only has 11o yds on the ground, most of those yards have been gained on goal line plunges that have netted five TD's in five games. It's clear that Edge is past his prime and you hate to see Hightower sitting unowned while he racks up touchdowns. But he's still a risky play until his carries per game start getting into double digits on a consistent basis.
• #7 - Darren McFadden - Oakland: Anointed in the pre-season as this year's Adrian Peterson, McFadden has been something of a letdown through the Raiders' first four games. Netting 272 yds and only 1 score, McFadden has been plagued by injury and an inability to shake competition from Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. Provided McFadden loses the boot soon and gets healthy, he still has potential to finish the season as a good RB2 or flex play. But for now, you're not starting him and if you jumped early to draft him, well, I hope you're in a keeper league.
• #8 - Kevin Smith - Detroit: Kevin Smith has definitely had the most drama of any of these rookies in his first year of NFL play. Late in training camp, it appeared Smith had completely snatched the starting job from Tatum Bell. Them the Bengals fired Rudi Johnson and all hell broke loose. Detroit hired Rudi and cut Bell. Bell stole Rudi's duffel bag. Smith kept the starting gig, then it looked like Rudi had taken it away. Smith starts anyway and has the better game against Chicago. You get all that? It's starting to look as though nothing is going to go Detroit's way this season, but if you really want to invest in their RB corps, it appears Kevin Smith is still the man to buy.
• #9 - Mike Tolbert - San Diego: The #3 RB behind LT and Darren Sproles, Tolbert has been used primarily as a receiver this year. If you're in a league deep enough to care about this guy, it's time to find another league
• #10 - Jamaal Charles - Kansas City: With LJ getting on in years, and having just dropped a 2 yard stinkbomb against Carolina, his current backups are just waiting for the infirm alpha to weaken further and they will drive him from his territory and subjugate his progeny. Right now it appears Charles has supplanted Kolby Smith as the #1 backup. But since it looks like Herm Edwards has changed his coaching philosophy from "we play to win the game" to "we play for a high draft pick" you probably don't want any Chiefs you didn't already draft.
  

Turf LT and his Toe

After another very un-Tomlinson performance this weekend featuring a goal line stuff by the Miami D, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported LT's turf toe injury was aggravated in the course of Sunday's game. CBS fantasy expert Jamey Eisenberg posted this article yesterday, extolling LT's virtues and imploring owners to stick with him. But I'm not buying it. I think LT is in trouble and if you own him, you need to deal now. Right this second LT is a big name coming off a poor game. But if his toe limits his playing time next week, or he drops another stinker, that injury-case label is going to hurt his trade value. This week, you can probably get a twofer. But if things go south in the coming weeks, you may have to add a sweetener to unload him in a bye-week reorg.

What About Westy?

Brian Westbrook owners know that every year their man is going get dinged up and probably miss a game or two. But having the one of the most productive RB's in the league is almost always worth the risk. This week presents a unique challenge. There are currently conflicting reports that Westbrook will almost certainly be inactive this week and that he has said he will play. Normal protocol in these situations is to have a backup ready to deploy when a final decision is made during pre-game warmups. Unfortunately, Philadelphia plays on Sunday night. So unless you're already holding Matt Forte on your bench, any backup options will have played by Sunday evening.

So let me draw your attention to one Rashard Mendenhall. The rookie RB will get his first start on Monday night and at 59% owned in Yahoo! public leagues, there is a chance you may be able to snag him as a Westbrook safety net. Granted, Mendenhall has not looked particularly impressive in his limited number of carries. And Baltimore is a tough defense. But he does offer a legitimate starter alternative that will allow you to wait and see on Westbrook.

If Mendenhall has already been claimed in your league and you still want to give Westbrook the benefit of the doubt, McGahee is questionable at the moment, as is Le'Ron McClain. So the 16% owned Ray Rice may also be an alternative.

Bottom line, if you have a solid starter to play in place of Westbrook in an early Sunday game, do it. But if you're thin on bench options in this first bye week. Consider Mendenhall or Rice as hedges on Westbrook's playing status.

Feelin' .500

It's the day before week 3 kicks off and as I look at my various teams, I realize that I am 1-1 in all of them. I also note that my five leagues are now down to 3. The Tag Team league that I described in an earlier post that used a best ball scoring format disappeared shortly after week 1 wrapped. I believe it's because the LM didn't realize how much work doing the scoring on paper was going to be. But since he has disappeared into the ether, I may never know. But that's life in the public leagues.

My team in the "Mile High Club" league has been gifted to my girlfriend. She wanted to try her hand at fantasy football and the thought of her drafting a team scared the hell out of me. So she is now managing Kornheiser's Kombover. I might be able to coax her into posting some entries from the newbie perspective later in the season. Incidentally, she is now 2-0. I think I gave away the wrong the wrong team.

My three remaining teams are all 1-1. I kicked off my office league with an ugly loss, but rebounded nicely in week 2 thanks to monster performances by Aaron Rodgers and Brian Westbrook. I'm also taking all possible credit for picking up Amani Toomer to fill in for Andre Johnson, who I had acquired to fill in for Marques Colston. I figured any team playing the Rams would make their receivers worthwhile for the week, and I was right. Toomer's fantasy point total was 1 short of Plax's for the week. I had to give up Delhomme, but there wasn't much point in maintaining 3 quarterbacks and he simply isn't tradebait yet. If he blows up with the return of Steve Smith, I can always go back out on the wire and try to snag him.

My remaining leagues are 1-1. My win in Charlie's League was nothing short of miraculous given the sad state of the QB position on the team when I acquired it. Keep in mind that this league starts 2 QB's and 2 OP's and gives points per completion, but not points per reception. In short, QB's are huge and they're at a premium. This week, I acquired Kerry Collins to boost my numbers and Matt Schaub is back in the lineup, so I may actually have a shot at a week 3 win.

The BALCO Bandits are chugging along in the Mandatory Steroids league, but David Garrard didn't help me much last week and I dropped to .500 after a monster win in week 1. It's too early to consider a move. But after the dust settles this weekend, I may end up proposing a couple trades to shake things up.

You Gotta Be Kidding Me...

With plenty of advance warning regarding the approach of hurricane Ike, the NFL chose to postpone the Sunday game between the Texans and Ravens until Monday night. Now, in the wake of the storm, league officials have discovered that Reliant Stadium in Houston is unfit for play, and may be for several weeks. So, no Monday game. But instead of relocating the game to one of the MANY available venues in Texas or surrounding states, the NFL has decided to screw up the schedule and move the game to November 9th (week 10). Now, in descending order, let me explain the many reasons this decision has pissed me off:

• On a personal level. In my office money league I lost Marques Colston to injury for 4-6 weeks on Monday. While I have backups at QB and RB, I didn't have a single WR/TE to spare, and I wasn't prepared to drop any of my bench players. So I started working a trade immediately. By Thursday night I was able to close a deal for... wait for it... wait for it... Andre Johnson. I was relieved to close the deal in time for week 2, but now, less than 24 hours before Sunday kickoff, I am once again down a receiver with no wiggle room on my bench.
  
• I'm also upset at the giant "eff you" this represents in terms of the NFL's treatment of fantasy players. There were multiple available venues for Sunday, Monday or Tuesday. But instead of just moving the location, the NFL has screwed up week 2 for every fantasy player out there with a Raven or Texan in their lineup. I appreciate that while the NFL marketers want to court the fantasy football players of the world, league officials still see us as basement-dwelling geeks not deserving of their consideration. Wake up. Fantasy football players represent one of the most rabid segments of the NFL fanbase and they should be accommodated whenever possible.
  
• League managers. Sorry folks, but you are screwed this week. Right now, your owners are frustrated, scrambling for waiver wire pickups and looking for concessions (can you wait until week 10 to make the week 2 scores official?). And of course there is absolutely nothing you can do to make this situation better. Well, that's not entirely true. I would strongly advise you to extend an olive branch to your owners and offer to expedite any trades involving teams affected by this massive screwup. This gives affected owners some kind of option after the wire has been picked clean and allows your unaffected owners the chance to try and vulture good Texans and Ravens from their desperate counterparts.
• Houston and Baltimore fans. My apologies to you too. Nothing gets the season going by taking two weeks off after your first game. And I'm sure you won' t mind when week 10 rolls around and all those banged up players that could really use a week to rest up before the playoff push will stay banged up straight through week 17. That's right, 15 weeks and no break. Where the hell was the league's competition committee on this one?
• Houston and Baltimore players. So, this was your bye week. Did you enjoy it? Was it relaxing practicing non-stop and watching film to prep for a game that won't happen until November? Well, at least you can relax this week. No? You mean you have to keep practicing and watching film in preparation for next week's game? Once again, where the hell was the league's competition committee on this?

I'd keep ranting about this, but I need to go and figure out where to find a receiver ASAP.

Unknown Quantities - Revisited

On Saturday, I identified 10 players who, for a variety of reasons, represented unknown potential performance. With week 1 in the books, let's see what we've learned:

• Kevin Smith-RB-Detroit: Smith put up a decent line on Sunday afternoon (80 yds, 1 TD). And as a rookie, his performance would have been even more impressive if fellow freshmen Matt Forte, Chris Johnson and Felix Jones, hadn't also excelled this weekend. Most importantly for Smith owners, Rudi Johnson got only 3 carries, none of which was very impressive. Johnson's share of the carries in Detroit my increase down the road, but he's not poised to steal the starting job anytime soon.
• Eddie Royal-WR-Denver: If you read my Saturday assessment on Royal and picked him up, you owe me. Big. Royal's 146 yds receiving and a TD made him the highest scoring receiver of week 1. Brandon Marshall is due back in week 2, which will definitely cut into Royal's numbers going-forward. But he has obviously established some chemistry with Jay Cutler and he should be a productive WR2 going forward.
• Frank Gore-RB-San Francisco: The big factor in determining Gore's value was seeing how effective the rest of the 49ers offense would be. The situation was not pretty. J.T. O'Sullivan managed 195 yds, 0 TD's and 1 INT. The bulk of Gore's 96 yards came on a single 1st quarter breakaway. After that, Arizona wisely loaded the box, and limited Gore's production. He's definitely still a starting option, but the rest of the offense needs to pick up its game if Gore is going to produce a monster season.
• Peyton Manning-QB-Indianapolis: Those fantasy "experts" who kept saying "start Manning with confidence," may want to back off their position now. Manning looked uncharacteristically tentative and seemed to lack confidence in his "laser arm." I have no doubt he will bounce back to his previously superior form. But it may take a few weeks. The smothering Chicago D did nothing to boost his ego.
• Calvin Johnson-WR-Detroit: After his stellar pre-season, expectations were extremely high for CJ. And in a week where WR's were generally less than spectacular, Johnson managed to look good with 7 catches for 107 yards. He didn't see the end zone in week 1, but the yardage speaks for itself. Johnson will definitely be one of Kitna's top two targets this season
• Chris Perry-RB-Cincinnati: Perry, along with the rest of the Cincinnati offense, managed to make Joe Flacco and company look awesome by comparison. Racking up only 37 yards on 18 carries (2.06 YPC, Ouch!) Perry was less than impressive in his first game as a starter. But the Bengals need to turn their entire offense around before anyone, Perry included, sees an improvement.
• Greg Jennings-WR-Green Bay: Any doubts about whether Jennings could stretch the field for Aaron Rodgers like he did for Brett Favre were put to rest on Monday night. Jennings hauled in a monster reception to put the Packers in scoring position early and justified his ADP above the dependable Donald Driver. Jennings may not put up consistently huge numbers every week, but he will continue to be a home run threat, even in Mr. Rodger's neighborhood.
  
• Michael Turner-RB-Atlanta: 220 yds on 22 carries and 2 TD's. The number one running back week 1. Turner clearly demonstrated that he can handle the starting role in Atlanta. And Matt Ryan's solid first outing suggests that Atlanta may have a surprisingly balanced offense. But be aware that Turner's monster numbers say more about the quality of Detroit's defense than his running ability. He's a definite starter, but don't expect this kind of romp every week.
• Ted Ginn, Jr.-WR-Miami: The Jets D effectively shut down Ginn on Sunday, limiting him to only 17 receiving yards. As a result, Pennington spread the ball all over the field, often keying on TE Anthony Fasano. Given the ease with which the Jets took Ginn out of the game, he may not be able to achieve starter-caliber production in the short term.
• Rashard Mendenhall-RB-Pittsburgh: Anything Mendenhall could have done on Sunday would have been overshadowed by Willie Parker's 138 yards and 3 TD's. Of course, Mendenhall didn't do all that much. With 28 yards on 10 carries, and no red zone touches, it looks like Mendenhall will probably be waiting in the wings for a while longer.
  

Fallen Patriot

Early reports coming out of New England suggest that the severity of Tom Brady's knee injury (see the video on NFL.com) may be season-ending. While the loss of Brady for the 2008 season would drastically change the Patriots' outlook, I'm waiting for official word that Brady has been placed on IR before I count him out for the long term. New England is notorious for obscuring injury information. Prior to this season, Brady had been on the weekly injury report with an unspecified shoulder injury for almost three years. So before you go dumping the golden boy for Matt Cassel, be sure the situation really is dire. Brady is scheduled for an MRI tomorrow and the results will probably be public ASAP.

Maybe the reason I'm advocating sit and wait is because I'm in denial. After all, the situation in New England isn't pretty if Brady really is done for the season. Matt Cassel, currently tied with Jim Sorgi for sweetest paying gig on earth, is a competent backup. But unlike Aaron Rodgers, no one ever thought Cassel was being groomed for the starting role. In fact, ESPN is reporting that New England will be working out Chris Simms and contacting Tim Rattay in anticipation of adding another QB to the mix if Brady is out for a significant period of time.

If you're a Brady owner, it may be too early to act. But start thinking about a backup acquisition now. And if you're not a Brady owner, but have some roster space, consider picking up Cassel, Simms, Rattay or anyone else who gets handed the keys to the Pats' high powered offense.

Late Afternoon Game Notes

Late afternoon games are final. After a little dinner break, my notes and observations:

• Arizona at San Francisco. Frank Gore ripped off one long TD run in the opening moments of the game. After that, not a lot of explosiveness in the ground game, but he did manage to rack up 55 receiving yards. It looks like the Martz era could boost Gore's value. Good news for Larry Fitzgerald owners: After a pre-season where Kurt Warner keyed exclusively on Anquan Boldin, seeing Fitz haul in Warner's sole TD pass of the game had to be a relief. Also worth noting: Despite Edge's 100 yard game, Tim Hightower still poached a goal line carry. Expect to see Hightower's role increase throughout the season.
• Dallas at Cleveland. Blowout. Dallas looked very good and Cleveland looked just the opposite. There were a few plays where the Dallas offensive linemen just stood up and looked bewildered, since there wasn't anybody to block. Romo could have measured his time in the pocket on a watch without a second hand. Both Marion Barber and understudy Felix Jones looked very good, punching in for 3 rushing TD's between the two of them. As bad as the Cleveland D looked, the offense might have been worse. There were a number of near misses between Anderson and Braylon Edwards that could have gone for big yardage. And Jamal Lewis just looked old. Cleveland needs to regroup in a hurry.
• Carolina at San Diego. I seem to remember this guy... Really talented running back... Ridiculous wheels, sick cuts and a nose for the endzone... I think he played for the Chargers. What was his name? For a mortal running back, 97 yards is nothing to sniff at. But for LT, failing to reach the end zone in the home opener with just shy of 100 yards is just plain weak. If Philip Rivers can get his act together and toss 3 touchdowns, LT should have 4. Just sayin'. Highlight of the game was Jake Delhomme's thread the needle, pro-bowl skill challenge, bullet on the final play of the game to Dante Rosario in the back of the end zone. Game over. Load the bus. Delhomme had a very respectable outing, especially given the absence of Steve Smith.
  

Early Game Notes

Sunday early games are wrapping up. Notes and observations:

• Brett Favre is still Brett Favre. He had two TD's. One of which was an up-for-grabs, INT-waiting-to-happen, rainbow heave that Chansi Stuckey managed to come down with. Don't know who Chansi Stuckey is? Join the crowd. Favre's good looking play action TD confirms that the Cotchery connection could lead to some serious fantasy goodness this year.
• Seattle is a mess. An injury of unknown severity robbed Matt Hasselbeck of Nate Burleson, his one remaining name-brand receiver. The result was a 34-10 beatdown by Buffalo. Not an ego booster.
• Bengals at Baltimore. Mediocrity at it's best. Although seeing "C. Ocho Cinco" in the box score is pretty darn funny.
• Michael Turner is currently the highest scoring fantasy player of the weekend. His line for the day: 220 yds on 22 attempts (yeah, that's a disgusting 10 YPC), 2 rushing TD's and a couple short receptions. That Turner was LT's backup in San Diego shows how good Tomlinson really is.
• Matt Ryan. 1st pass=1st TD. Hang up the cleats, call it a career. It doesn't get any better than that. Seriously though, not a bad outing for the rookie QB: 9/13, 161 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT. Probably not a guy you want on your roster yet, but it's a promising start.
  
• Rams at Eagles. It's just painful to see how good Donovan McNabb can be on the rare occasion he's healthy: 21/33, 361 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT. And Brian Westbrook still looks dominant, but it appears that the rookie WR corps might take some of the receiving load off of Westy. The Rams looked awful. Note to Steven Jackson: Maybe the pre-season isn't a complete waste of time. Is that new contract going to seem as sweet when you and your team suck for the first half of the season?
• Drew Brees. This guy has so many receiving options, it isn't funny. Seriously, I own Marques Colston in a money league. Hitting him three times for 26 yds and no TD's in a 3 TD outing hurts.
• Tom Brady and Brodie Croyle. Two starting QB's going out with injuries in the same game. I'm guessing NE fans are slightly more concerned.
• Houston at Pittsburgh. The Houston offense, with Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub both healthy, looked pretty sorry, earning their second TD in garbage time. Pittsburgh was SOLID today. But the real story here is Willie Parker topping his TD total from 2007 is his first game of '08. If you drafted Fast Willie in round 1 or 2 last season and had a sucking black hole on your roster until he finally went down with an injury, today's performance must feel really special.
  

Unknown Quantities

I spent some time answering questions on the ESPN fantasy football boards last night and one thing I kept coming back to is that many players are, as of right now, unknown quantities. They are unproven rookies, vets in a new system, coming off injuries or working a starting role for the first time. Are they legitimate trade-bait, or destined for the bench? Here's a list of 10 unknown quantities to keep an eye on this weekend:

• Kevin Smith-RB-Detroit: Smith quickly stripped the starting job from Tatum Bell in camp and was looking like a definite RB3, possible RB2. But then Matt Millen signed the recently released Rudi Johnson. While it was certain that Smith would get almost every carry with Bell as a backup, Rudi is a much bigger threat. If Smith looks good this weekend against Atlanta, he should maintain the bulk of the workload. If he struggles, expect a timeshare to develop in short order.
• Eddie Royal-WR-Denver: Royal exceeded expectations for a rookie wideout in camp and climbed into the number two receiver position. With Brandon Marshall out for game one, Royal is in the #1 spot and he won't get a better opportunity to earn his starter status.
• Frank Gore-RB-San Franciso: Predictions about Gore's production this season have fluctuated wildly. One camp believes Gore's soft hands will make him a valuable receiving target in a pass-happy Martz offense. The non-believers see Gore as the only threat in a weak 49ers offense, which makes it easy to load the box and shut him down. Gore has looked good in his pre-season outings, but this week's matchup against Arizona will be the first real opportunity to see how effective Gore will be in the Martz offense.
• Peyton Manning-QB-Indianapolis: Manning? Unknown quantity? Oh yes. Peyton's time on the field during the pre-season is best described as "limited." And with Jeff Saturday out for the at least 4 more weeks, the offensive line is a question mark. I'm not suggesting that Manning was or is a poor draft choice. But this week is going to be critical in projecting his success for the first half of the season.
• Calvin Johnson-WR-Detroit: After a promising rookie campaign and a pre-season where CJ is being hailed as the second coming of Randy Moss (the 2007 version), Johnson has enormous promise. Tune in to see if his production matches his potential.
• Chris Perry-RB-Cincinnati: With the release of Rudi Johnson, Perry is set to take the majority of carries for the Bengals. Perry has had a solid pre-season and it's doubtful Marvin Lewis would release Johnson is he had questions about Perry's effectiveness. However, this will be his first shot at a starting role and he needs to put his talent to use, or a committee situation with Kenny Watson will develop.
• Greg Jennings-WR-Green Bay: In 2007 Jennings was Brett Favre's favorite home run option. And a long pre-season TD connection with Aaron Rodgers shows Jennings hasn't lost a step. The question is whether Rodgers will be as daring as his gun-slinging predecessor. If Rodgers proves to be a more conservative QB, Jennings could pay the price, while Donald Driver's stock rises.
• Michael Turner-RB-Atlanta: After crawling out from underneath LT's monstrous shadow, Turner is poised to have a breakout year as the designated starter in Atlanta. However, the Falcons are a team in transition with a rookie QB. Much like Frank Gore in San Francisco, if Turner proves to be the only dangerous offensive weapon, opposing defenses will key on him and shut him down quickly. Turner owners must also be cognizant of a lurking Jerious Norwood. Norwood is a talented back in his own right and has never been properly utilized in Atlanta.
  
• Ted Ginn, Jr.-WR-Miami: With a virtual talent vacuum at QB last year, Ginn didn't have much of an opportunity to show off his receiving talent. With veteran QB Chad Pennington under center, Ginn may emerge as a legit starting option.
• Rashard Mendenhall-RB-Pittsburgh: Mendenhall's 3 pre-season fumbles have reduced his threat to Willie Parker's carries, but the Steelers are still eager to develop their talented young back. Watch to see how many, and what kind, of carries (3rd down and/or goal line) Mendenall nabs this weekend to get a feel for how involved he's going to be in the Steeler's offense early in the season.
  

Redskins In Trouble

If Jason Campbell is your starting quarterback, I'm really, really sorry. If the last two preseason games hadn't already crystallized exactly what was wrong with the Redskins, it was pretty clear tonight: The man under center doesn't belong there. Campbell demonstrated remarkably poor judgment, tossing unnecessary long bombs that no one was going to catch, and throwing short slants on 3rd and long. Maybe head coach Jim Zorn and offensive coordinator Sherman Smith are partly to blame. But when it comes time to throw the ball and make the play, the buck stops with Campbell. The really bad news is that Campbell's inability to get his act together compromises the value of promising starters like Chris Cooley and Santana Moss. Luckily, out of five different leagues, the only Redskin I own is kicker Shaun Suisham (and only in one league). I thought that the Redskins might have trouble converting in the red zone. Turns out they aren't really capable of reaching the red zone. And maybe that's unfair, since the Redskins were able to put together one scoring drive that almost looked good.

And that brings me to the Giants. If you're holding Eli, Brandon Jacobs or Plax, life is pretty good right now. But I want to see the the Giants take on some of their tougher brethren in the NFC (Dallas and Philadelphia) before I drink the Kool-Aid and suggest that they could be a playoff contender. Incidentally, I'm going on the record and calling their Super Bowl win a fluke. And anyone who thinks they're going to repeat without Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora is drinking something stronger than Kool-Aid.

Westbrook Apologizes

If you owned Brian Westbrook last season, you probably made your league playoffs. Between his awesome rushing numbers, and the fact that "Westy" is also the Eagle's best receiver, he's a one-man offensive unit. However, there was an incident during week 15 last year that shocked even the most devout Westbrook owner. In the closing minutes of their game at Dallas, Westbrook ripped off what should have been a tasty touchdown run. But in a move that showed remarkable heads-up football insight and utter disdain for fantasy owners, Westbrook sat down on the one, denying the Dallas offense another chance to take the field.

For those that didn't own Westbrook (or managed to pull out a in without the additional TD), Westbrook added "certified football genius" and "ultimate team player," to his credentials. But to owners who lost by a TD margin that week, Westbrook had committed the ultimate football sin (check out the titles on the YouTube video above. There are some very fragile fantasy owners out there).

Today on ESPN, Westbrook actually apologized to fantasy owners for last year's transgression:

I really couldn't care less whether Westbrook actually feels bad for letting down fantasy owners last year. Probably not. What is important here is that more premier NFL players are developing an appreciation for fantasy football, and the interest it brings to the game. Even more interesting is that more and more NFL players are actually fantasy owners themselves. For ethical reasons, most NFL players try not to own themselves. Maybe they should. Think about the incentive to achieve when there's fantasy pride on the line, not just a playoff spot.

Draft Recap

It took a lot longer than anticipated to get this site up and running. So now I'm trying to catch up with all of my pre-season posts before kickoff tomorrow night. I posted on Verbal Currency earlier this summer that the toughest part of drafting for me is sticking with my pre-draft plan. And I'm not alone. Too many experienced owners cave to peer pressure and react to runs on a certain position or grab a big name that they don't need with trade-bait intentions. So for better or worse, I drafted all of my teams this year based on the following rules:

-RB first round, no matter what.

-Don't jump on a QB too early. Most owners are ditching the RB, RB strategy in favor of a "best available player" draft. QB's aren't going to be the best available player between round 2 and round 5. If you're not going to jump on Brady or Manning, then grab other productive position players before heading back to the QB pool.

-Draft YOUR OWN team. Unless you really screw up in the first few rounds, use your mid-to-late round picks on players you would feel comfortable putting into your starting lineup. Don't grab a guy that won't add value to your team because you think someone else wants him. Guys you're willing to put in your own roster are better trade-bait anyway.

-Don't bother with the handcuff. Most fantasy experts advise that owners "handcuff their studs." In deep leagues, with lots of bench space and slim pickings on the waiver wire, protecting your investment with a late round handcuff makes sense. But for those of us that are using standard rosters and have 12 or fewer teams in a league, a handcuff that will only start in the event of catastrophic injury is a wasted bench spot. Better to draft an alternative starter that has bye-week usefulness and be quick on the wire if your starter blows out his knee.

-Wait on the D/ST. Every year, somebody grabs the a D/ST in rounds 6-8. And that usually kicks off a run on defenses when valuable position players are sill on the board. Don't give in to the pressure. Wait until the last few rounds of the draft and grab the best available D/ST. Then wait to see which undrafted team ends up with a dominant D and snag them off the wire.

-Last Round=Kicker. What do people not get about this?

I followed my rules as closely as possible this year and I have no regrets about my teams. I'll revisit some of my significant drafting decisions later in the season, as I discover whether they panned out or not.

League Lineup

With just under 36 hours until kickoff of the 2008 NFL season, I'm reviewing lineups in my various leagues and making sure I don't have any roster holes or injuries heading into the weekend. I'm participating in five leagues this year. Only one league, IDI All Stars, is a money league. And since I know all the owners in that league, it's the most fun. The other four leagues, which I will detail below, are all ESPN leagues that I joined primarily for the experience. Each league presents its own learning opportunities and challenges:

-Tag Team Skirmish (Texas Bison): This is a "best ball" league. Sixteen teams, standard ESPN roster, everyone drafts their own team. After the draft, everyone was assigned a partner at random. I merged my roster with my partner's and each week, the highest scoring player from either team at each position "counts." Dan, the league manager came up with the idea on the golf course and it looked just wacky enough to be fun. It's going to mean a lot of work on paper for Dan each week, but the concept is cool. The big challenge here is that I felt I drafted extremely well for such a deep league, but my partner did not. He did manage to wrangle Peyton Manning in a VERY advantageous trade, but due to some drafting missteps on his part (Shaun Alexander and Tatum Bell for example), and the fact that we drafted almost a month ago, there will be some roster work to do in the coming weeks.

-Charlie's League (Kornheiser's Kombover): This is a keeper league team that I picked up off the ESPN FF boards. In short, it's a restoration project. This team has an absolutely ridiculous receiving corps (Houshmandzadeh, Wayne, Boldin, Driver and Fitzgerald), but was ridiculously week at QB. This is a problem in a league that starts two QB's and two OP's in scoring system that overvalues quarterbacks. I was able to snag Matt Schaub, but for the moment he and Brodie Croyle are my go-to guys. Kind of scary.

-Mandatory Steroids (BALCO Bandits): My first IDP league. Starting a standard ESPN roster, plus two IDP slots, this will be my first exposure to the IDP aspect of fantasy football.

-Mile High Club (Kornheiser's Kombover): Ok, so I used the same team name twice. But come on, it's kind of funny. This is a straight up, vanilla, ESPN public league with only eight teams. I felt pretty good about my chances of dominating this one, but a draft snafu (more on that in another post) may have compromised what might have been an even better roster.

-IDI Fantasy All Stars (Raging Bison): This is my office league. It's my only money league and my only Yahoo! league. This is my biggest prestige league and I'm coming off a 2nd place finish last year. The roster is fairly small (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR/TE, K, D/ST) with only four bench spots. Often the biggest challenge is juggling players through the bye weeks. But with two fewer teams than last year (we're down to 12), there are still quality players on the wire to use as stopgaps.

So that's the rundown. Many of my posts will be on player developments in general, but I expect to spend a respectable amount of time discussing my own leagues, and what I'm learning.